Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0690…8821 sports 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$804 (-12%) realized −$804 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%99W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$335
14 days+$248
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$520
other 28% −$18
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +69.6% +53.5% 65% 65% +28.7%
≤30d 98 +18.9% +7.6% 61% 61% -8.3%
≤90d 177 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 56% -17.1%
all 177 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 56% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 56% -17.1%
10% -16.1% 55% -25.1%
15% -24.2% 47% -32.3%
20% -31.6% 38% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$38 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$804
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses99 / 78
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 187
History coverage50d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ben Shelton 78¢ 78¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $27 +$110 +414%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$14 +71%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $18 +$8 +44%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $39 +$10 +26%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $24 +$86 +365%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $40 +$15 +38%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $23 +$16 +71%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $15 +$7 +46%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $38 +$35 +93%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $22 +$102 +473%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $26 +$14 +52%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $50 +$13 +26%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $41 +$108 +264%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $9 +$43 +468%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) Jun 11 $22 +$27 +119%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $22 −$22 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $66 +$39 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$17 +34%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $44 +$22 +50%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $46 +$50 +109%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $60 +$39 +65%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $51 +$40 +78%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $56 +$41 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $50 +$12 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $22 +$28 +123%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $10 +$19 +185%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $23 −$23 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $48 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $77 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $20 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 19¢ $27 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $49 23h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $18 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Col BUY $51 28h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $39 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 21¢ $24 45h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 59¢ $22 2d
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bublik 47¢ $23 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $14 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 25¢ $41 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $40 2d
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 58¢ $23 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 19¢ $20 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL Yes 100¢ $22 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 68¢ $15 4d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $15 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY $41 4d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $44 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 22¢ $51 4d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $62 4d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $50 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $38 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.69 · official $123.31 · 288 history records