Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0693…9679 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,191 (+13%) realized +$1,261 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%27W / 24L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$947
7 days+$1,116
14 days+$1,116
30 days+$1,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$484
other 48% +$541
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +55.1% +40.3% 57% 33% +1.4%
≤30d 51 +45.3% +31.5% 53% 29% +0.8%
≤90d 51 +45.3% +31.5% 53% 29% +0.8%
all 51 +45.3% +31.5% 53% 29% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.5% 29% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here +18.9% 22% -8.8%
15% +7.4% 14% -17.6%
20% -3.1% 10% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$8 · ×6.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.03 per $1 lost it wins $7.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$1,261
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions9
Markets (closed)51 / 60
History coverage21d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 40¢ 60¢ $23 $35 +$12 (+50%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 18¢ 13¢ $33 $24 −$9 (-28%)
Will Canada finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under $24 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Under $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 36¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $860 −$15 -2%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $416 +$128 +31%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 −$4 -16%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $12 +$399 +3209%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $141 +$30 +21%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$5 -20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $150 −$6 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $640 −$21 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $114 +$124 +109%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $431 +$24 +6%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $417 +$3 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $26 +$12 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 +$2 +14%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 16 $348 +$202 +58%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$8 +30%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $388 +$98 +25%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $153 −$11 -7%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $70 +$19 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $669 −$37 -6%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $700 +$40 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $58 $0 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$20 -20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $65 +$8 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $82 +$9 +11%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $141 +$69 +49%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $121 +$3 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $712 +$58 +8%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$5 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 −$4 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $302 −$4 -1%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $204 +$9 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $84 +$9 +10%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 −$4 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $119 +$10 +9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $35 −$9 -27%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 0.5 May 28 $10 +$10 +102%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $79 −$13 -17%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5 May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $103 −$4 -4%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $25 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 15¢ $18 4m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 15¢ $8 4m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 86¢ $95 4m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 86¢ $20 4m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 86¢ $38 4m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $89 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 13¢ $6 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 13¢ $13 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 13¢ $1 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $19 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $42 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 13¢ $3 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 85¢ $182 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $76 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $3 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $13 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $5 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 85¢ $85 5m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 60¢ $3 7m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 56¢ $4 8m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 54¢ $4 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 50¢ $5 11m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 18m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $46 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 35¢ $25 25m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $54 27m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $140 31m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 18¢ $20 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.47 · official $61.39 (match) · 725 history records