trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 33% | 0% | -11.0% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 73% | 45% | -1.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -7.5% | -16.3% | 62% | 38% | -2.6% |
| all | 16 | -12.2% | -20.6% | 62% | 31% | -3.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.6% | 31% | -3.7% |
| 10% | -28.2% | 6% | -12.9% |
| 15% | -35.1% | 0% | -21.3% |
| 20% | -41.5% | 0% | -29.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $77 | $77 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $46 | $46 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Jun 26 | $27 | $0 | +2% |
| Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Jun 26 | $29 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Jun 26 | $40 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $32 | +$4 | +14% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 15 | $38 | +$12 | +31% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 28 | $4 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | Feb 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |