Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0696…318f weather 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate61%74W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$23
world 7% +$2
other 5% +$3
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 120 -38.1% -44.0% 61% 0% -11.1%
all 121 -37.7% -43.6% 61% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 1% -10.9%
10% -49.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -54.0% 0% -27.3%
20% -58.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses74 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19? Apr 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? Apr 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 20? Apr 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20? Apr 20 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Apr 20 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 20? Apr 20 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 19? Apr 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on Apri Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or below on April 18? Apr 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 15 Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 15? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 13? Apr 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 14? Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will "Anaconda" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Apr 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 12? Apr 13 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $87 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $11 59d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $13 59d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 60d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $11 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? BUY No 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 BUY No 98¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 320 history records