Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0697…d423 crypto 776 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,041 (+3%) realized +$1,040 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate77%593W / 182L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day52.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,001
7 days+$1,001
14 days+$1,001
30 days+$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +24.4% +12.6% 82% 57% +9.7%
≤30d 332 +3.8% -6.1% 75% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 775 +6.3% -3.9% 77% 42% -6.9%
all 775 +6.3% -3.9% 77% 42% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 42% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 30% -15.8%
15% -21.5% 22% -24.0%
20% -29.2% 15% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$32 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$1,040
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses593 / 182
Open positions1
Markets (closed)775 / 776
History coverage42d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day52.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 775 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 82¢ 50¢ $16 $10 −$7 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 36¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $109 +$41 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$26 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $229 +$141 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$7 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $210 +$140 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $265 +$235 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $116 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $266 +$54 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $254 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $361 −$241 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$26 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $170 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$40 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$47 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $114 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $116 +$84 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$15 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $393 +$167 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $200 −$80 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $89 +$61 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$21 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $130 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $28 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $38 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.95 · official $14.95 (match) · 2881 history records