Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0699…6fed crypto 502 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%442W / 59L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$8
14 days+$12
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$43
weather 30% +$34
other 8% −$102
sports 4% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 55 +5.8% -4.3% 89% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 439 +1.9% -7.8% 87% 10% -9.5%
all 501 +1.7% -8.0% 88% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 8% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 8% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses442 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)501 / 502
History coverage108d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $355 $354 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $640 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $640 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 24? Jun 24 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 23? Jun 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 22? Jun 22 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 22? Jun 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 21? Jun 21 $410 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $360 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $195 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $410 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? Jun 15 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? Jun 15 $380 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? Jun 14 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $480 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $470 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on June 10? Jun 10 $770 +$1 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $1 +$2 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 8? Jun 08 $120 +$1 +1%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 6? Jun 06 $360 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 6? Jun 06 $260 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$5 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 5? Jun 05 $320 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 5? Jun 05 $430 $0 +0%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $2 +$3 +134%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4 $0 -13%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $14 −$4 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 3? Jun 03 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 3? Jun 03 $460 +$1 +0%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $23 −$23 -98%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 1? Jun 01 $550 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $355 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $640 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $143 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $640 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $140 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $182 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $260 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $110 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $140 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $410 9d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $360 9d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $195 11d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $170 11d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $410 11d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 12d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $700 13d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $60 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $380 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $320 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $290 16d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $480 16d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $170 17d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $600 17d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $300 18d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $470 18d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $770 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.47 · official $354.47 (match) · 1079 history records