Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x069a…7c82 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-9%) realized −$84 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$168
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$112
other 40% +$6
world 1% −$8
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -31.2% -37.8% 21% 21% -26.7%
≤30d 69 -25.5% -32.6% 25% 25% -17.1%
≤90d 69 -25.5% -32.6% 25% 25% -17.1%
all 69 -25.5% -32.6% 25% 25% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 25% -17.1%
10% -39.0% 25% -25.1%
15% -44.9% 23% -32.3%
20% -50.3% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$11 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 52
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$4 -12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $12 +$8 +65%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$28 +110%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 +$82 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$11 -71%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$30 -74%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 38¢ $27 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $12 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 18h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 45h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 47¢ $10 45h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $59 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $4 3d
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.75 · official $18.75 (match) · 117 history records