Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x069b…5bf1 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
other 24% +$11
politics 20% $0
culture 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 8% -9.6%
all 32 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -8.2%
10% -18.4% 3% -17.0%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.0%
20% -33.5% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage270d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $40 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $81 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $25 +$16 +61%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $23 +$3 +12%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $14 −$4 -31%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $42 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $42 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $43 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $43 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $21 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $36 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.70 · official $41.71 (match) · 114 history records