Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06a2…8015 other 822 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,312 (-2%) realized −$22,345 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate84%688W / 132L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,187per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$497est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days−$2,761
14 days−$2,108
30 days−$4,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$11,349
sports 24% −$13,542
world 9% +$206
politics 2% +$732
culture 1% +$494
crypto 0% +$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -14.0% -22.2% 73% 23% -23.1%
≤30d 141 -5.9% -14.9% 79% 16% -16.1%
≤90d 522 -3.5% -12.7% 81% 16% -13.2%
all 820 -1.6% -11.0% 84% 18% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 18% -11.7%
10% -19.5% 2% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.3% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$564 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,634
Realized−$22,345
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses688 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$497
Open positions2
Markets (closed)820 / 822
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$1,187
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 820 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,400 $1,424 +$24 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $201 $210 +$9 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $401 +$39 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $400 +$10 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $321 +$14 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $161 +$19 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $551 +$19 +3%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $502 +$28 +6%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $401 +$19 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,211 −$1,344 -61%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $410 +$12 +3%
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 +$58 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $801 −$800 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,907 −$56 -3%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $501 +$42 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $501 −$501 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $512 +$61 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $502 +$73 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,103 −$263 -24%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $110 +$6 +5%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $500 +$15 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Laura Svatikova vs Eva Vedder Jun 11 $501 +$37 +7%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $301 +$56 +18%
ITF Hurghada: Summer Yardley vs Martyna Kubka Jun 11 $2,002 +$65 +3%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $601 +$25 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $400 +$16 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,002 +$32 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $401 +$17 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $502 1h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 25h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 90¢ $101 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $201 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $400 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $503 28h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY No 92¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $101 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $321 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $161 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $301 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $551 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 95¢ $501 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $300 3d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 86¢ $1 3d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $1 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $401 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 83¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $3 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $422 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,634.10 · official $1,634.10 (match) · 3500 history records