Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x06a3…5cd3 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$180 (+26%) realized +$197 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +110% what you keep after slip
Net edge+110%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$236
crypto 17% −$89
world 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+110.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +509.6% +451.5% 100% 100% +164.0%
≤30d 2 +509.6% +451.5% 100% 100% +164.0%
≤90d 9 +132.3% +110.2% 56% 44% +52.1%
all 9 +132.3% +110.2% 56% 44% +52.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +110.2% 44% +52.1%
10% +90.1% 44% +37.6%
15% +71.7% 44% +24.3%
20% +54.9% 33% +12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +132% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$26 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage71d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $200 $235 +$35 (+18%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 42¢ $200 $151 −$49 (-25%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$53 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$200 +972%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 12 $3 +$15 +487%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 12 $90 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 20h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 99¢ $220 20h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $90 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.12 · official $420.61 · 24 history records