Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06a8…9a40 world 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%33W / 64L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
sports 33% −$6
politics 14% −$9
other 11% −$14
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +1.3% -8.3% 30% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 50 +0.6% -9.0% 24% 2% -9.7%
all 97 -3.1% -12.3% 34% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses33 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage491d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $165 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $187 −$3 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $161 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $194 +$1 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $162 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $147 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $165 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $159 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $93 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $455 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $315 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $166 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $157 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $458 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $534 +$3 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $7 $0 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $164 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $164 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $199 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 +$2 +36%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $73 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $145 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $143 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $143 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 23 $214 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $144 −$1 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $144 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $262 −$5 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $83 −$9 -10%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $139 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,038 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $1,397 −$9 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $915 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $250 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $969 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,147 +$3 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $189 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $145 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $166 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $165 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $165 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $165 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $38 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $165 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $161 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $161 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $161 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $81 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $65 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $147 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $161 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $162 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $93 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $54 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $147 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $77 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $48 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $84 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $85 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $120 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.81 · official $146.73 (match) · 374 history records