Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x06a9…1a49 other 1337 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,052 (-17%) realized −$27,070 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%658W / 870L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$691est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$4,207
sports 37% +$6,997
politics 2% −$1,757
world 1% +$51
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -66.9% -70.1% 14% 13% -7.0%
≤30d 641 -32.4% -38.8% 35% 34% -1.3%
≤90d 1502 -15.7% -23.7% 43% 41% -8.8%
all 1528 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 41% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 41% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 38% -16.5%
15% -37.1% 33% -24.6%
20% -43.3% 27% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$76 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$873
Realized−$27,070
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses658 / 870
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$691
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1528 / 1337
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$119
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $310 $304 −$6 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 80¢ 100¢ $130 $162 +$32 (+25%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-03? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-08? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-07? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2025-11-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Astronomer Divorce Parlay Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-07? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-27? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Mazatlán FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Chile Open: Nicolas Jarry vs Dino Prizmic Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Drexel Dragons vs. Charleston Cougars Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-23? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-23? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August? Jun 17 $20 −$9 -47%
Pistons vs. Clippers Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-09-13? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Cubs vs. Reds Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Cubs vs. Giants Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on or before September 22 ET? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-31? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-31? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-05? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-12? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-28? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on January 30, 2 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-12-01? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Celtic win on 2025-08-20? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $101 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 14¢ $10 2h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $41 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $214 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 76¢ $10 4h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 72¢ $20 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 98¢ $30 4h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 88¢ $20 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 45¢ $41 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 80¢ $101 7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 80¢ $30 7h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $20 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $544 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $98 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 52¢ $55 14h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 89¢ $30 14h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $51 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 14h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $204 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 2¢ $24 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $53 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $399 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $41 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 33¢ $41 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $873.39 · official $873.43 (match) · 3500 history records