Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x06aa…fbf3 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,226 (+50%) realized +$4,008 · open +$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 30L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$397
14 days+$653
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$3,786
economics 28% +$58
sports 21% +$568
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +11.3% +0.7% 62% 62% +13.2%
≤30d 56 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 62% +5.7%
≤90d 72 +10.1% -0.4% 58% 58% +71.1%
all 72 +10.1% -0.4% 58% 58% +71.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 58% +71.1%
10% -9.9% 53% +54.7%
15% -18.6% 50% +39.8%
20% -26.6% 36% +26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$28 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.9 per $1 lost it wins $5.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$3,698
Realized+$4,008
Unrealized+$218
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 30
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage89d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $1,854 $1,945 +$91 (+5%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $1,527 $1,571 +$45 (+3%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 100¢ $50 $98 +$48 (+96%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 100¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$71 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$78 +77%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $121 +$21 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$36 -72%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $107 +$92 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$45 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -47%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$25 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$20 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$58 +188%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$12 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$19 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$26 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$27 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$20 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $106 +$51 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $25 +$39 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$16 +65%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$12 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 +$8 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $101 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 2026- BUY 31¢ $51 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 56¢ $101 45h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $151 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 72¢ $143 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $13 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $199 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $107 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 72¢ $37 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 93¢ $56 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $44 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,698.35 · official $3,698.35 (match) · 232 history records