Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06ac…c22f sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-6%) realized −$42 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%32W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$70
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$19
other 40% −$101
crypto 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -59.9% -63.7% 33% 17% -44.1%
≤90d 13 -39.1% -44.9% 46% 38% -23.9%
all 101 -16.9% -24.9% 32% 31% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 31% -21.6%
10% -32.0% 29% -29.1%
15% -38.6% 27% -36.0%
20% -44.6% 25% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage284d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $50 +$16 +32%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals Jun 06 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen May 16 $44 +$9 +20%
Cordoba: Fernando Cavallo vs Eduardo Ribeiro May 12 $49 +$19 +39%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 11 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Dec 04 $1 +$7 +669%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Nov 30 $1 +$2 +212%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 +$2 +144%
Will Tottenham vs. Fulham end in a draw? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $2 +$11 +567%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-23? Nov 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Cremonese vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Nov 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Nov 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? Nov 23 $4 +$7 +178%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins Nov 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Lightning vs. Avalanche Nov 05 $10 +$7 +70%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $10 +$5 +47%
Lightning vs. Utah Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fiorentina vs. Lecce end in a draw? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RB Leipzig vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fulham vs. Wolves end in a draw? Nov 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Nov 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $2 +$2 +108%
Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets Nov 01 $4 +$3 +67%
Lightning vs. Red Wings Nov 01 $6 +$8 +138%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 75¢ $50 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 26d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 37d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Baltimore Orioles 92¢ $50 39d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 40d
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 83¢ $44 40d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 40d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 40d
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 45d
Cordoba: Fernando Cavallo vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 71¢ $49 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 86¢ $50 46d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 200d
Will Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 200d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-04? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 203d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 203d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 207d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 207d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 208d
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 208d
Will Tottenham vs. Fulham end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 208d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 212d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 212d
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 212d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 213d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 214d
Will US Cremonese vs. AS Roma end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.68 · official $3.68 (match) · 137 history records