Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06ae…f059 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+5%) realized +$203 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day215.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$338
other 1% +$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 43% -2.4%
≤30d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 43% -2.4%
≤90d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 43% -2.4%
all 61 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 43% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 43% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -11.7%
15% -26.0% 26% -20.3%
20% -33.3% 18% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$24 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day215.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 41¢ 40¢ $41 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$132 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$115 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$41 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$17 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $133 +$79 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $90 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $134 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$49 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $169 +$66 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $97 +$49 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $127 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $147 +$24 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$149 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $143 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$18 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$81 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $157 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $91 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$79 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $154 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $87 −$48 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$52 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$32 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$26 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $190 −$64 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$16 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $166 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$31 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$21 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$61 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $127 −$44 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $142 +$25 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $134 −$27 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $17 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.90 · official $46.97 · 949 history records