Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06af…9ddd crypto 148 markets active 6d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%89W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$8
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$36
sports 9% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 58% -15.1%
≤30d 118 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 47% -15.8%
≤90d 148 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 47% -13.9%
all 148 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 47% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 47% -13.9%
10% -21.6% 35% -22.2%
15% -29.2% 26% -29.7%
20% -36.1% 17% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses89 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $7 +$6 +86%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records