Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06b2…96eb other 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 25% −$1
politics 18% −$6
sports 6% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% +$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 15% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 22 +1.0% -8.6% 23% 5% -9.1%
all 62 -3.2% -12.4% 34% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage458d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $127 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $8 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $35 +$3 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $40 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $6 +$3 +41%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 +6%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Union for National Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Bu Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 27 $31 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 08 $31 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 4m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $12 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records