Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06b4…f030 politics 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1
other 23% −$1
crypto 18% $0
economics 9% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage115d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $82 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $83 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $82 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 05 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $79 1h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $80 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $80 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $80 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $80 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 25d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 26d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 26d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $81 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 31d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 34d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 35d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $81 37d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $81 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $81 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $81 43d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $81 46d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 46d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $82 64d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $82 65d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $82 67d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 68d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $82 69d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $82 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $82 73d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $82 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $82 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $82 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records