Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x06b5…6319 crypto 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,565 (+43%) realized +$1,638 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%44W / 58L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$69
14 days+$70
30 days+$1,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$1,551
other 9% −$83
sports 3% −$17
economics 1% −$25
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +24.1% +12.3% 35% 35% -24.0%
≤30d 102 +40.0% +26.7% 43% 39% -1.3%
≤90d 102 +40.0% +26.7% 43% 39% -1.3%
all 102 +40.0% +26.7% 43% 39% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 39% -1.3%
10% +14.6% 35% -10.8%
15% +3.5% 29% -19.4%
20% -6.7% 25% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$24 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$1,638
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses44 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)102 / 107
History coverage16d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $26 $8 −$18 (-70%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-94%)
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$34 +34%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$30 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$50 -83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$42 +414%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $27 +$201 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $114 +$98 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $78 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $62 −$50 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $37 +$55 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 06 $137 −$24 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $87 −$75 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 06 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $103 −$51 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $76 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.61 · official $10.61 (match) · 279 history records