Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06b6…32c2 crypto 659 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,445 (-10%) realized −$3,445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%326W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day208.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 -42.4% -47.9% 30% 30% -58.1%
≤30d 824 -22.9% -30.2% 40% 40% -40.8%
≤90d 824 -22.9% -30.2% 40% 40% -40.8%
all 824 -22.9% -30.2% 40% 40% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 40% -40.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 40% -46.5%
15% -43.0% 40% -51.6%
20% -48.6% 40% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$66 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$3,445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses326 / 498
Open positions0
Markets (closed)824 / 659
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day208.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 824 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $91 −$91 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $37 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $33 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.00 · official $248.00 (match) · 3500 history records