Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x06bd…d49e other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$1
world 34% +$5
politics 9% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 5% −$2
finance 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 0% -8.4%
all 53 -3.1% -12.3% 58% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -9.1%
10% -20.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -28.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage379d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $33 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $30 +$3 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $28 +$2 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 27 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 02 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 01 $33 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 18 $6 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will Boca Juniors win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 11 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $32 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $32 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $33 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $10 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $22 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $11 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $19 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $33 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $33 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $30 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $30 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $23 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $32.55 (match) · 153 history records