Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06c2…184f sports 649 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,650 (-9%) realized −$5,652 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%278W / 370L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$1,030est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$661
7 days+$412
14 days+$189
30 days−$990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3,640
crypto 12% −$714
weather 5% −$151
other 4% −$158
world 0% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +13.0% +2.3% 48% 43% +2.8%
≤30d 135 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 37% -18.1%
≤90d 648 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 39% -15.8%
all 648 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 39% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 39% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 35% -23.8%
15% -25.2% 30% -31.2%
20% -32.5% 27% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$65 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$5,652
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses278 / 370
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,030
Open positions1
Markets (closed)648 / 649
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bergs vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 Under 50¢ 53¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $108 +$21 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $112 +$135 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $129 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $125 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $108 +$50 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $106 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $109 +$31 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $64 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $143 +$33 +23%
Muchova vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 27 $3 $0 +9%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) Jun 27 $12 +$86 +719%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $130 +$172 +132%
Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $274 −$68 -25%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $116 +$160 +138%
Quinn vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $91 −$21 -23%
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Ruse (+1.5) Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $42 +$51 +120%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $150 −$147 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$37 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$33 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$34 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $38 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$29 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$19 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$29 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $2 +$14 +809%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $156 +$265 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $29 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $74 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $42 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 99¢ $247 7m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 44¢ $112 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $28 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.50 · official $26.50 (match) · 3500 history records