Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

06 0x06c3…7e69 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$122 (-4%) realized +$276 · open −$398

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%4W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$148per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$47est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$234

7 days−$16

14 days−$16

30 days−$19

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-31.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-25.1%	-32.2%	27%	27%	-10.2%
≤30d	16	-23.8%	-31.0%	25%	25%	-10.3%
≤90d	16	-23.8%	-31.0%	25%	25%	-10.3%
all	16	-23.8%	-31.0%	25%	25%	-10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.0%	25%	-10.3%
10%	-37.6%	25%	-18.9%
15%	-43.7%	25%	-26.7%
20%	-49.2%	25%	-33.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late -54% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$189 vs −$65 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.98 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$202

Realized+$276

Unrealized−$398

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses4 / 12

Est. fees paid−$47

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage16d

Avg bet$148

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	63¢	64¢	$200	$202	+$2 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	33¢	0¢	$400	$1	−$399 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$244	−$73	-30%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$294	+$208	+71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$203	−$200	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$50	−$25	-50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$31	−$30	-98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	Jun 13	$204	−$41	-20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	Jun 13	$102	−$62	-61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$203	+$217	+107%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$102	+$161	+158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$109	−$106	-98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$249	+$169	+68%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$101	−$19	-19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$68	−$3	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	45m
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	23¢	$205	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	58¢	$101	5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$101	9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$102	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	18¢	$15	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	34¢	$37	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	36¢	$41	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	18¢	$37	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$102	22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	52¢	$97	22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$101	22h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	94¢	$502	23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$294	25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$203	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	21¢	$24	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$31	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	24¢	$1	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	40¢	$36	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	41¢	$15	46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY	15¢	$31	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	24¢	$163	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	24¢	$0	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	23¢	$102	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	7¢	$40	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	18¢	$102	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	41¢	$102	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	99¢	$420	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$263	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.25 · official $202.25 (match) · 44 history records