Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06c6…577b economics 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,324 (-31%) realized −$1,321 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1,263
world 22% +$25
politics 17% +$38
economics 14% −$103
tech 4% −$18
crypto 2% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.8% +2.1% 75% 25% -27.3%
≤30d 5 +29.6% +17.2% 80% 40% +25.2%
≤90d 5 +29.6% +17.2% 80% 40% +25.2%
all 34 -28.6% -35.4% 26% 12% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 12% -42.2%
10% -41.6% 9% -47.8%
15% -47.3% 6% -52.8%
20% -52.4% 6% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$59 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$1,321
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage309d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $219 $225 +$6 (+3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $78 $83 +$5 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $75 $58 −$17 (-22%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $14 $17 +$4 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 18 $10 +$12 +121%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$22 -77%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? May 25 $51 +$49 +96%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $68 −$49 -72%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jan 06 $10 −$2 -21%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 04 $53 −$24 -46%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jan 04 $85 −$5 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jan 04 $77 −$6 -8%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 04 $40 +$2 +4%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 04 $1 $0 -39%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jan 03 $1 $0 -58%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 02 $60 +$11 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 02 $443 +$6 +1%
Fanduel launches prediction markets with CME by end of 2025? Dec 22 $90 −$85 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Dec 21 $22 −$10 -47%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Dec 19 $287 −$196 -68%
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? Dec 10 $297 −$3 -1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Aug 23 $1,055 −$976 -93%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 22? Aug 19 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Aug 19 $84 −$15 -18%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31? Aug 18 $57 −$22 -39%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? Aug 18 $99 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? Aug 18 $33 −$14 -42%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Aug 18 $14 −$9 -60%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? Aug 18 $22 −$9 -43%
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2025? Aug 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Aug 18 $22 −$1 -4%
Trump x Zelenskyy meet on Monday? Aug 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday? Aug 17 $9 −$3 -33%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 15 $687 +$38 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 21¢ $28 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 21¢ $43 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 38¢ $22 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 94¢ $2 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 16¢ $47 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $10 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 88¢ $2 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $10 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $9 26h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 28h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $75 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 23¢ $7 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 4¢ $42 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $54 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $96 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $343 23d
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 162d
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 162d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $2 163d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $0 163d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 163d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 38¢ $8 163d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 164d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes 30¢ $80 164d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 35¢ $53 164d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 165d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.37 · official $383.37 (match) · 206 history records