Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x06c8…a711 world 53 markets active 5d ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$44 (+3%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 30L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$30
other 27% +$18
sports 7% $0
politics 7% −$4
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 67% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 20 +1.0% -8.7% 55% 10% -7.3%
≤90d 20 +1.0% -8.7% 55% 10% -7.3%
all 53 +2.6% -7.1% 43% 8% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 8% -7.2%
10% -16.0% 4% -16.1%
15% -24.1% 2% -24.2%
20% -31.6% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage304d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $137 −$3 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $64 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $167 +$3 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $13 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $111 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $58 +$8 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $60 +$18 +30%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -18%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 12 $12 +$17 +133%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 19 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $30 +$2 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $38 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $8 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $35 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $83 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $43 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $54 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $75 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $33 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $18 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $10 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $71 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $33 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $30 8d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records