Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06c9…424f sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$210 (-7%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$193
other 28% −$720
crypto 0% −$7
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -25.7% -32.8% 33% 31% -27.0%
≤30d 54 -25.7% -32.8% 33% 31% -27.0%
≤90d 54 -25.7% -32.8% 33% 31% -27.0%
all 54 -25.7% -32.8% 33% 31% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.8% 31% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 28% -34.0%
15% -45.1% 28% -40.4%
20% -50.5% 24% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$41 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 62
History coverage5d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $81 +$54 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $548 −$540 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $132 +$208 +157%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $71 +$46 +64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $61 +$67 +109%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $222 +$96 +43%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $42 −$42 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$32 +105%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $118 +$98 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$28 +549%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 +$14 +283%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $66 +$12 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 +$22 +37%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $132 +$101 +76%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $92 −$90 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$44 +86%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$19 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$34 +67%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$31 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$16 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $154 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $135 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $233 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $81 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $51 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $41 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 29¢ $20 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 30¢ $20 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $20 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 61¢ $40 31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 59¢ $30 31h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Spread BUY 11¢ $10 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 31h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Spr BUY 3¢ $10 31h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $128 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $319 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $42 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $61 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 69¢ $222 34h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Uruguay vs BUY 6¢ $5 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 44h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $215 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 44h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $19 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $20.00 · 114 history records