Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06ce…0b8b finance 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,614 (+5%) realized +$1,647 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%96W / 79L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day108.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$91
14 days+$219
30 days+$713
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 65% +$287
other 33% +$375
tech 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 30% -8.5%
≤30d 175 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 30% -7.5%
≤90d 175 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 30% -7.5%
all 175 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 30% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 30% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 18% -16.4%
15% -25.4% 11% -24.5%
20% -32.7% 8% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$32 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$1,647
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses96 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)175 / 185
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$181
Trades / day108.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 42¢ 48¢ $103 $119 +$17 (+16%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Up 57¢ 50¢ $100 $88 −$13 (-13%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 13¢ 40¢ $7 $20 +$14 (+202%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? Yes 81¢ 34¢ $41 $17 −$24 (-59%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? No 41¢ 48¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Up 62¢ 52¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Down 46¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+73%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Down 44¢ 20¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-54%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Up 29¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-52%)
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? Up 13¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? Up 31¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 17 $221 −$189 -86%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $255 +$209 +82%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $531 −$106 -20%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$6 -66%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $236 +$109 +46%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +44%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +14%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$9 -28%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $57 +$17 +30%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $440 +$18 +4%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 16 $55 −$48 -88%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $427 +$57 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $64 −$4 -7%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $443 +$15 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$2 +8%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$16 -78%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $347 −$121 -35%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$10 +67%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$25 +470%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $722 +$140 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $314 −$137 -44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $278 −$89 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $416 +$99 +24%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -14%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$5 -21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $317 +$205 +65%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $487 −$52 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $28 22m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 22m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 61¢ $6 31m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 11¢ $1 40m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 40m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 40m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 11¢ $2 40m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? SELL No 16¢ $1 40m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 90¢ $5 40m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 41m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 52¢ $26 41m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 52¢ $26 41m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 41m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 52¢ $26 41m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 41m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 42m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 52¢ $26 42m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 50m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 47¢ $24 50m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 46¢ $10 51m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 51m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 52¢ $4 54m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $3 54m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 42¢ $8 58m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 58m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY No 37¢ $3 58m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 58¢ $5 58m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 62¢ $6 59m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.45 · official $331.45 (match) · 3500 history records