Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x06ce…5fa8 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$405 (+9%) realized +$401 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate66%95W / 49L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 29% +$179
sports 25% +$36
crypto 17% −$52
other 15% +$18
finance 9% +$182
culture 4% +$22
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.4% -4.7% 100% 0% -4.7%
≤30d 9 -18.1% -25.9% 67% 33% +0.1%
≤90d 82 +4.3% -5.7% 65% 55% -3.5%
all 144 +5.2% -4.9% 66% 57% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 57% -1.2%
10% -14.0% 48% -10.7%
15% -22.3% 38% -19.3%
20% -29.9% 32% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses95 / 49
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)144 / 148
History coverage121d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $127 $129 +$2 (+1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $8 $0 +5%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playo Jun 06 $0 $0 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $331 +$54 +16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 05 $241 +$40 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 03 $201 +$19 +10%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T? May 28 $82 −$16 -19%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? May 27 $0 $0 +31%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $26 +$4 +17%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $3 +$7 +206%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 08 $482 +$20 +4%
LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $2 +$8 +317%
LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season May 01 $5 +$5 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $6 +$4 +64%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 01 $4 +$6 +152%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $5 +$5 +86%
LoL: Francesinhas vs Ronaldo Team (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 01 $20 −$7 -35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Ch May 01 $6 +$4 +62%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 01 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner May 01 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 01 $15 −$14 -99%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 30 $6 +$4 +76%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 30 $5 +$5 +97%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $4 +$6 +124%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Apr 30 $6 +$4 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $6 +$4 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $14 +$6 +43%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qua Apr 29 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $13 +$7 +55%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Apr 28 $39 +$21 +53%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Apr 28 $4 +$1 +26%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 27 $29 +$11 +38%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $4 +$3 +66%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $32 +$17 +52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $32 +$18 +57%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challeng Apr 25 $9 +$6 +60%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Blue Otter - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 27m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 31m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 43m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 86¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $13 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $18 47h
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playo BUY mCon esports 4¢ $0 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 92¢ $9 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 40¢ $9 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 39¢ $39 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 36¢ $11 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 49¢ $5 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 84¢ $8 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 48¢ $14 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 60¢ $12 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 19¢ $2 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $1 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $1 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $0 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 47¢ $5 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 48¢ $5 22d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 35¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.00 · official $279.00 (match) · 703 history records