Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x06d4…0178 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% $0
other 35% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.0% -9.5% 6% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage109d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $85 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $86 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $86 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $86 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 13h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $85 19d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $68 20d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $85 28d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $85 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $85 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $85 31d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 33d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 34d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 36d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 40d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 46d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 46d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 63d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 63d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 68d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 68d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 77d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 78d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 82d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 83d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 89d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 90d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $86 94d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 94d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records