Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06d4…21ff sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+5%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate62%63W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$13
other 24% −$2
weather 17% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 57 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 57 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 0% -12.6%
all 102 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 19% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 19% -5.4%
10% -21.4% 16% -14.4%
15% -29.0% 12% -22.7%
20% -36.0% 11% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses63 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $19 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records