Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x06d5…29c4 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$87
14 days+$32
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$87
politics 44% −$79
world 7% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.7% +11.9% 75% 75% +15.7%
≤30d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 50% -15.6%
≤90d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 50% -15.6%
all 6 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 50% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 50% -15.6%
10% -22.1% 50% -23.6%
15% -29.7% 50% -31.0%
20% -36.5% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$70 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage20d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $96 +$104 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $72 +$28 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $335 −$79 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 12¢ $256 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 12¢ $239 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 36¢ $68 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 27¢ $28 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.50 · official $63.50 (match) · 14 history records