Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06d6…d87f crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,557 (+14%) realized +$1,557 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$205
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$2,176
politics 19% +$4,272
world 15% −$43
crypto 10% −$80
tech 10% −$184
culture 3% −$27
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +82.2% +64.8% 75% 50% +23.7%
≤30d 4 +82.2% +64.8% 75% 50% +23.7%
≤90d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 30% -33.9%
all 27 -9.0% -17.6% 26% 19% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 19% +5.1%
10% -25.5% 15% -5.0%
15% -32.7% 15% -14.2%
20% -39.3% 15% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$608) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$735 vs −$169 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,557
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage127d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$210 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$236 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $260 −$247 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 17 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 17 $99 +$115 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 17 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $292 −$282 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 10 $64 −$60 -94%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? Feb 16 $73 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $60 −$19 -31%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $144 −$12 -8%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Feb 16 $120 +$20 +17%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Feb 16 $318 −$10 -3%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $238 −$15 -6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $1,000 −$161 -16%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 16 $1,700 −$80 -5%
Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? Feb 16 $1,662 −$1,662 -100%
Will Sketch & Ryley Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? Feb 16 $90 −$85 -94%
Will Xqc & PlaqueBoyMax Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? Feb 16 $64 −$55 -86%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Feb 15 $689 −$304 -44%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 15 $1,000 −$22 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 15 $608 −$22 -4%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 14 $14 −$7 -47%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $1,749 +$4,553 +260%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $316 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $341 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $160 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $54 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 31d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 1¢ $85 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $42 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $64 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 10¢ $207 37d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records