Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x06e3…670f crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$38 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$155
sports 15% +$253
other 11% −$54
world 1% −$5
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +26.2% +14.2% 35% 31% -22.4%
≤30d 26 +26.2% +14.2% 35% 31% -22.4%
≤90d 35 +6.0% -4.1% 31% 29% -43.8%
all 60 +13.9% +3.0% 42% 37% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 37% -7.6%
10% -6.8% 35% -16.4%
15% -15.8% 25% -24.5%
20% -24.1% 22% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)60 / 75
History coverage135d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$78 +1521%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$11 +216%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Miami Open: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$20 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$12 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $29 +$7 +26%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 12? Mar 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Mar 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Mar 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 26 $20 −$6 -32%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Mar 26 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 16? Feb 17 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $30 +$9 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $35 +$7 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $200 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P Feb 11 $3 +$3 +127%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 2PM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $31 +$205 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 7m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 9m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 8h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 27h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 36h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.48 · official $118.48 (match) · 174 history records