Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06e8…9c25 weather 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,349 (-11%) realized −$24,814 · open +$465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate73%165W / 62L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$974per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4,616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days+$459
14 days+$739
30 days+$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$27,120
other 8% −$235
crypto 3% +$190
politics 0% +$324
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.4% -3.8% 92% 24% -7.1%
≤30d 97 +1.0% -8.6% 82% 32% -8.3%
≤90d 227 -7.3% -16.1% 73% 26% -20.7%
all 227 -7.3% -16.1% 73% 26% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 26% -20.7%
10% -24.2% 9% -28.3%
15% ← realistic here -31.5% 5% -35.2%
20% -38.2% 3% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$647 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$4,616
Realized−$24,814
Unrealized+$465
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses165 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)227 / 236
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$974
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $2,450 $2,717 +$267 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $897 $1,000 +$103 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? No 86¢ 96¢ $350 $389 +$38 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? No 90¢ 99¢ $173 $188 +$15 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $100 $171 +$71 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $100 $88 −$11 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $38 $43 +$5 (+14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? No 94¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 87¢ 9¢ $27 $3 −$24 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $500 +$36 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $114 +$6 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $450 +$8 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,491 +$111 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $126 −$121 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2,126 −$452 -21%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1,202 +$72 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $768 +$30 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $128 +$37 +29%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $133 +$17 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1,916 +$190 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $364 +$19 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $312 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $143 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3,005 +$119 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $591 +$16 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1,700 +$36 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $751 +$151 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 15 $197 +$13 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $177 +$8 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $421 +$133 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $710 +$10 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $156 +$6 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $420 +$17 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $537 +$7 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $164 −$18 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $65 +$5 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $840 +$118 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1,163 −$661 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3,043 +$457 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $566 +$27 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $357 +$10 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $671 +$17 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$6 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,244 +$137 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $69 +$17 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $450 +$50 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $840 −$26 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $595 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4,904 +$51 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2,429 +$19 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $524 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 08 $526 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $36 +$8 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 08 $1,315 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $11 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $104 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $408 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $987 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $16 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $113 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 41¢ $120 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $35 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $182 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $457 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $47 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $14 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $244 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $257 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $114 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 82¢ $5 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $16 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,615.68 · official $4,615.68 (match) · 3500 history records