Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x06ee…66b5 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,322 (+25%) realized +$3,326 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$1,670
14 days+$3,024
30 days+$3,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$2,430
other 30% +$348
crypto 4% +$397
world 3% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 46% +8.0%
≤30d 36 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 47% +12.5%
≤90d 36 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 47% +12.5%
all 36 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 47% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 47% +12.5%
10% -12.8% 47% +1.8%
15% -21.2% 47% -8.1%
20% -29.0% 39% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$179 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$3,326
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage11d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $454 +$427 +94%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $214 −$111 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $353 +$161 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $406 −$201 -50%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 +$107 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $561 +$379 +68%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $359 −$156 -43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $508 −$477 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $156 −$153 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 +$481 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $566 +$397 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$38 -37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,013 +$411 +41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $508 +$6 +1%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $427 −$420 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $310 +$300 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$55 -54%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$491 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $153 +$213 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $507 +$436 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,107 +$1,095 +99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $708 −$700 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$183 +356%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $659 +$524 +80%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $330 +$340 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $306 −$32 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $198 +$164 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $880 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $51 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 20h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $92 20h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $11 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $50 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $48 20h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $214 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $196 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $353 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $605 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $204 46h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $334 46h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $357 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $30 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $203 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $256 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $508 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $156 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,491 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.59 · official $95.59 (match) · 82 history records