Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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06 0x06f8…a8e0 crypto 1841 markets active 2d ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$333 (-3%) realized −$304 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%690W / 1344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,187
7 days−$1,031
14 days−$1,009
30 days−$1,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$415
other 2% −$54
politics 2% +$8
tech 0% −$45
sports 0% −$7
culture 0% −$5
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -78.5% -80.6% 11% 10% -77.1%
≤30d 338 -63.7% -67.2% 17% 16% -65.0%
≤90d 2034 -13.5% -21.7% 34% 31% -21.9%
all 2034 -13.5% -21.7% 34% 31% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 31% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 31% -29.4%
15% -36.0% 30% -36.2%
20% -42.3% 29% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$304
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses690 / 1344
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2034 / 1841
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2034 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $45 $35 −$10 (-22%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $49 $30 −$19 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: S2G Esports vs PCIFIC (BO3) - TCL Playoffs Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 39h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.96 · official $64.96 (match) · 3500 history records