Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06fa…455c sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,246 (-13%) realized −$29,982 · open +$1,736
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%31W / 38L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,604per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$3,359est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23,255
7 days+$23,255
14 days+$23,255
30 days−$25,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$24,505
other 18% +$2,607
crypto 4% −$1,572
politics 0% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+86.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +154.0% +129.8% 75% 75% +22.0%
≤30d 69 +105.7% +86.1% 45% 43% -25.6%
≤90d 69 +105.7% +86.1% 45% 43% -25.6%
all 69 +105.7% +86.1% 45% 43% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +86.1% 43% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here +68.3% 42% -32.8%
15% +52.0% 41% -39.3%
20% +37.1% 35% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,243) neutral
Persistence
early +156% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,718 vs −$2,119 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,902
Realized−$29,982
Unrealized+$1,736
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses31 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,359
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 82
History coverage30d
Avg bet$2,604
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 31¢ 96¢ $642 $1,962 +$1,320 (+205%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $489 $940 +$451 (+92%)
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 30¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $7,452 +$3,341 +45%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $906 −$890 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,000 +$1,309 +65%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 0 Jun 28 $25 +$42 +168%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $581 +$2,478 +427%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $100 +$55 +55%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 28 $107 −$105 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10,724 +$4,089 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11,990 −$4,637 -39%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $215 −$211 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $4,243 +$3,918 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 27 $2,032 +$2,219 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 27 $5,352 +$5,372 +100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 27 $5,130 +$2,772 +54%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $4,763 +$2,168 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4,628 +$1,335 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $13,985 −$13,735 -98%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $473 −$465 -98%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $459 +$522 +114%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $508 −$500 -98%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $502 −$492 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $230 −$220 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $418 +$181 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $1,176 +$845 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $626 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $134 −$127 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $747 −$600 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $314 +$706 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $209 +$180 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $620 +$593 +96%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $6,442 −$2,391 -37%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10,954 −$5,258 -48%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $475 +$80 +17%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $3,039 −$2,999 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $24 −$23 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 06 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $452 −$436 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $99 +$428 +431%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7,837 −$7,837 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $5,038 +$179 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$172 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $106 −$100 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 31 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $136 −$129 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $5 2m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $20 2m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $20 3m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $100 3m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $10 3m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $20 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $24 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $3 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $5 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $8 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $8 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $19 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $48 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $6 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $192 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $96 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $211 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $5 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $8 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $8 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $5 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $24 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $24 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $9 5m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $5 5m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $134 5m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $18 5m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 96¢ $100 5m
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 98¢ $10,793 8m
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $7,452 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,901.95 · official $7,940.87 · 409 history records