Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x06fb…9713 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,409per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$14,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 82% +$4
economics 13% −$7
other 2% +$2
sports 2% −$123
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$35 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$14,979
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,409
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $12,395 $12,399 +$4 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $2,035 $2,027 −$7 (-0%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 56¢ $199 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $156 $183 +$27 (+17%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $96 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $17 −$7 -41%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,077 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,760 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $202 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 72¢ $101 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $104 2h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 10h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $2 23h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 38h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 38h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $87 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 3d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $1,973 3d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $891 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $81 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,978.76 · official $14,978.79 (match) · 32 history records