Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x06fc…f631
sports · 27 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$153 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$193 · open +$40
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$82
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 5 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$193
14 days−$193
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Under 50¢ 94¢ $19 $37 +$17 (+89%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Under 43¢ 89¢ $14 $30 +$16 (+109%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Under 36¢ 86¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+137%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 28¢ 80¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+186%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 52¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 59¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 77¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Under 50¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 +$4 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $17 +$15 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $39 +$37 +95%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $91 −$53 -58%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $106 −$102 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $52 +$48 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $15 +$12 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $83 −$81 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $80 −$79 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $64 +$41 +64%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $41 +$44 +106%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $66 +$77 +116%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $30 −$29 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$150
other 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $11 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 43¢ $12 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 4h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 4h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $9 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $30 21h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $73 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 31¢ $52 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 66¢ $20 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $3 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $17 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 99¢ $75 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $39 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 22¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 41% -29.2%
≤30d 22 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 41% -29.2%
≤90d 22 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 41% -29.2%
all 22 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 41% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 41% -29.2%
10% -23.3% 41% -35.9%
15% -30.7% 41% -42.1%
20% -37.5% 41% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.75 · official $81.75 (match) · 84 history records