Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0700…94f8 crypto 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+2%) realized +$55 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%78W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$217
other 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -15.5% -23.6% 29% 29% -21.7%
≤30d 28 -15.5% -23.6% 29% 29% -21.7%
≤90d 237 -13.2% -21.5% 33% 32% -16.3%
all 237 -13.2% -21.5% 33% 32% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 32% -16.3%
10% -29.0% 32% -24.3%
15% -35.8% 31% -31.7%
20% -42.1% 31% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses78 / 159
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage42d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 42¢ 28¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $48 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$14 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$18 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$65 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$36 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$12 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 19 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 18 $40 −$19 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 18 $40 +$23 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 18 $20 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 18 $40 −$19 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 18 $20 +$57 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 18 $20 +$26 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $40 −$19 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 18 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 18 $24 −$23 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $55 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $32 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.82 · official $15.54 · 425 history records