Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0701…f939 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-13%) realized −$129 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days−$79
14 days−$138
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$137
sports 23% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.3% -23.4% 43% 43% -19.2%
≤30d 9 -34.1% -40.4% 33% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 9 -34.1% -40.4% 33% 33% -25.3%
all 9 -34.1% -40.4% 33% 33% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 33% -25.3%
10% -46.1% 33% -32.4%
15% -51.3% 33% -39.0%
20% -56.1% 33% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$73 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage11d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals No 59¢ 57¢ $105 $102 −$3 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $77 $71 −$6 (-8%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $188 +$103 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 +$92 +129%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 −$118 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $97 +$106 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $106 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $78 11h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $70 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $188 14h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $71 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $104 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $71 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $26 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $65 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $120 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $92 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $5 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $55 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.03 · official $241.03 (match) · 20 history records