Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
07 0x0704…6ab8 crypto 1586 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 185d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,427 (-32%) realized −$5,437 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%573W / 976L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 185d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$633
world 1% −$5
sports 1% +$13
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 2 +174.4% +148.3% 50% 50% -5.1%
all 1549 -13.3% -21.5% 37% 36% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 36% -13.3%
10% -29.0% 35% -21.6%
15% -35.9% 35% -29.2%
20% -42.2% 34% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$5,437
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses573 / 976
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1549 / 1586
History coverage185d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 78¢ $31 $42 +$10 (+33%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 27 $210 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1PM ET May 20 $4 +$16 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $210 +$90 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 19 $4 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 18? Feb 18 $132 −$66 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $32 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Te BUY 29¢ $10 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: Alger BUY 21¢ $3 4h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Argentina: Both BUY 10¢ $3 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: Bot BUY 7¢ $3 4h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Houston Astros vs. Detroit BUY 25¢ $5 5h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Argentina: Both BUY 13¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 17¢ $5 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: Bot BUY 17¢ $5 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Argentina: B BUY 28¢ $5 5h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: B BUY 9¢ $5 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score A BUY 29¢ $5 5h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND BUY 21¢ $5 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: Bot BUY 9¢ $5 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 36¢ $5 5h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND BUY 21¢ $10 5h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Argentina: Both BUY 24¢ $5 5h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on BUY 21¢ $5 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: Bot BUY 8¢ $5 5h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Te BUY 28¢ $5 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: Bot BUY 14¢ $5 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06- BUY 23¢ $5 6h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Te BUY 14¢ $5 6h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Argentina: Both BUY 37¢ $5 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: Bot BUY 24¢ $5 6h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ar BUY 28¢ $5 7h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will E BUY 18¢ $5 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 9¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 22¢ $5 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 26¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.61 · official $221.03 · 3500 history records