Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0705…1175 crypto 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 509d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+0%) realized +$186 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%402W / 25L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days−$19
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$44
other 35% −$54
sports 18% +$230
tech 2% +$4
politics 1% −$61
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 83 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 179 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 1% -9.7%
all 427 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$778) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$36 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$2,343
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses402 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions23
Markets (closed)427 / 450
History coverage509d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $395 $394 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $390 $386 −$4 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $230 $226 −$4 (-2%)
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 96¢ $140 $135 −$5 (-4%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 98¢ 94¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 97¢ 95¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Chappell Roan be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2,200 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 8-14? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $320 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $40? Jun 12 $650 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $130? Jun 12 $900 +$2 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 12 $223 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $140? Jun 12 $350 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $452 −$35 -8%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 8? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 8? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 7? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 June 1-7? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 7? Jun 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 7? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 1-7? Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 7? Jun 08 $120 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 June 1-7? Jun 08 $160 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? Jun 08 $360 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? Jun 06 $835 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 5? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $8.00? Jun 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th Jun 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? Jun 06 $160 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 4? Jun 06 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 5? Jun 06 $650 +$2 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 May 25-31? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 May 25-31? Jun 01 $160 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 May 25-31? Jun 01 $160 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 May 25-31? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 May 25-31? Jun 01 $290 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $480 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 30? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w May 31 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $395 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $390 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $230 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $15 35h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,200 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 47h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 47h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 2d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $210 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $140 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $30? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 5¢ $60 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $15 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $87 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $112 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $124 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $36 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $73 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $32 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $81 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $121 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $128 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,343.26 · official $2,347.09 (match) · 1111 history records