Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x0706…4dc7 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+5%) realized +$57 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$49
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$81
sports 15% −$32
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -18.3% -26.1% 50% 44% -1.2%
≤30d 24 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 54% +1.7%
≤90d 24 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 54% +1.7%
all 24 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 54% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 54% +1.7%
10% -20.5% 42% -8.1%
15% -28.2% 38% -17.0%
20% -35.2% 29% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 31
History coverage13d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Australia 85¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 37¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 24¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $211 +$27 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$36 +59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $50 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 55¢ $30 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 69¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 62¢ $61 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 71¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.86 · official $143.86 (match) · 59 history records