Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0706…61d2 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
other 22% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 5% −$4
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +3.4% -6.5% 31% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 14 -4.0% -13.2% 29% 7% -9.0%
all 39 -3.8% -12.9% 41% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage479d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $87 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $4 −$1 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $8 −$2 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 +$4 +80%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 26 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars draft Will Campbell? Apr 18 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 28 $14 $0 +2%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 20 $13 +$1 +11%
Will "Sing Sing" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will "Mi Camino" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Yura Borisov win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $17 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Mar 02 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $46 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $46 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $16 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $16 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $45 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 35h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $40 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $40 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $41 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $24 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $24 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records