Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x0707…2ccd other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$822 (+12%) realized +$822 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$463
crypto 8% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 55% -2.7%
≤30d 11 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 55% -2.7%
≤90d 11 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 55% -2.7%
all 11 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 55% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 55% -2.7%
10% -14.4% 9% -12.0%
15% -22.7% 0% -20.5%
20% -30.3% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$79 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$822
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,214 −$206 -17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,058 +$156 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,481 +$374 +25%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $579 +$105 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $539 +$40 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $463 +$76 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $463 +$53 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $220 −$25 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $257 −$37 -14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $315 −$47 -15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,008 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,214 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,214 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,058 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,058 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $798 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 71¢ $798 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $684 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $684 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $579 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 96¢ $579 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $539 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $539 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $463 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $195 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $195 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $220 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $220 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $257 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $257 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $268 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 73¢ $268 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $315 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records