Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:55:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x070b…ec5e crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,043 (+21%) realized +$1,043 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$156
14 days+$144
30 days+$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$928
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +37.9% +24.8% 75% 75% +4.3%
≤30d 14 +29.7% +17.3% 64% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 28 +35.7% +22.8% 43% 36% +7.4%
all 32 +26.6% +14.5% 41% 34% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 34% +7.7%
10% +3.6% 19% -2.6%
15% -6.4% 16% -12.0%
20% -15.6% 16% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$16 · ×5.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,043
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage123d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $13 +$15 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $199 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $301 +$82 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $504 +$64 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $47 −$12 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $555 +$34 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $370 −$26 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $351 −$59 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $555 +$31 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $344 +$45 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $328 +$66 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $347 +$39 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $120 +$313 +260%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $64 +$442 +692%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $62 −$57 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $57 −$49 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 05 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $168 −$39 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 25 $41 −$8 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $4 +$17 +432%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 31? Apr 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $178 −$10 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 18? Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Feb 26 $83 −$18 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? Feb 25 $116 +$84 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $194 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $199 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 96¢ $383 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 74¢ $301 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 95¢ $568 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $504 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? SELL No 9¢ $35 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 11¢ $47 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? SELL No 98¢ $589 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL No 59¢ $344 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $370 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $555 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? SELL No 74¢ $293 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $351 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? SELL No 98¢ $586 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 92¢ $555 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? SELL No 97¢ $388 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 85¢ $344 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? SELL No 98¢ $395 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? SELL No 97¢ $387 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 81¢ $328 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 86¢ $347 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? SELL No 73¢ $432 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? SELL No 18¢ $2 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 19¢ $120 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? SELL No 77¢ $21 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 77¢ $22 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records