Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x070f…e902 weather 390 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,324 (-5%) realized −$1,324 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%238W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$333
7 days−$246
14 days−$332
30 days−$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$1,454
crypto 4% −$214
other 2% +$143
world 2% +$125
sports 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 50% -24.3%
≤30d 97 +8.0% -2.3% 75% 36% -12.2%
≤90d 276 -10.7% -19.2% 60% 30% -11.2%
all 389 -10.5% -19.1% 61% 35% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 35% -14.5%
10% -26.8% 24% -22.7%
15% -33.9% 14% -30.2%
20% -40.4% 8% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$1,324
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses238 / 151
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)389 / 390
History coverage132d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $131 +$16 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $166 +$90 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 17 $13 −$8 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $442 −$418 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$35 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $171 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $175 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $168 +$12 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $79 +$21 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $299 +$28 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$17 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $365 −$164 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $117 +$53 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $184 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 +$21 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $264 −$55 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $79 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $192 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$11 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $138 +$26 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $451 −$149 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $146 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $68 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $416 +$52 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $65 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$6 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $215 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $96 +$85 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $221 +$9 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $148 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $29 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $33 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $51 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $25 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $77 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $25 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $33 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $173 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $24 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 14¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $25 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $34 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $49 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $45 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 2¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 11¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 11¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 17¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 15¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $49 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.50 · official $76.50 (match) · 1619 history records