Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0711…f03c
world · 441 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,054 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$910 · open +$697
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,331
Realized+$910
Unrealized+$697
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses114 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions497
Markets (closed)226 / 441
History coverage26d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day129.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 497 History 226 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$206
14 days+$694
30 days+$910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B? No 65¢ 96¢ $159 $234 +$75 (+47%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 91¢ 98¢ $186 $199 +$13 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $144 $172 +$28 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $156 $161 +$5 (+3%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 62¢ $139 $151 +$11 (+8%)
Will Trump nationalize elections? No 66¢ 78¢ $106 $126 +$19 (+18%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $113 $115 +$2 (+1%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $96 $105 +$9 (+9%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? No 96¢ 99¢ $87 $91 +$3 (+4%)
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+5%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 66¢ 77¢ $67 $78 +$11 (+17%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $73 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama Nothing 81¢ 90¢ $67 $74 +$7 (+11%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $59 $68 +$10 (+17%)
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 22¢ 62¢ $23 $64 +$40 (+175%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? No 57¢ 85¢ $42 $63 +$21 (+50%)
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? Yes 27¢ 42¢ $39 $61 +$22 (+58%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No 90¢ 96¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 31¢ 51¢ $34 $56 +$22 (+65%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $65 +$7 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $22 −$3 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $45 +$8 +18%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $54 +$14 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$24 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $13 −$4 -35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $28 −$2 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $12 +$4 +32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $36 +$12 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $89 +$3 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $24 −$20 -82%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $9 +$11 +114%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $9 +$1 +15%
Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO? Jun 10 $0 $0 -67%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $55 +$9 +17%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $65 +$105 +162%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $23 +$6 +26%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $69 +$8 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $27 +$22 +80%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $19 +$3 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $37 +$32 +86%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$12 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $84 −$2 -2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $97 +$24 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $14 −$9 -63%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 07 $37 +$1 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$7 -70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $63 −$22 -34%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $3 +$7 +270%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $69 +$5 +7%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $23 +$16 +69%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $29 +$6 +20%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 06 $38 +$6 +15%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? Jun 06 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Trump say "Beef" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $9 −$6 -72%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $66 −$4 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 04 $10 +$74 +722%
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 +$15 +306%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$1,019
world 30% +$147
politics 12% +$270
tech 6% −$51
crypto 3% +$127
finance 1% −$4
economics 1% +$45
sports 0% +$55
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2m
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 16m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 21m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 8¢ $2 23m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 99¢ $10 24m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 25m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 28m
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? SELL No 100¢ $15 28m
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 1h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2h
Will world GDP growth be 3.6% in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 97¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 34¢ $3 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 97¢ $57 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +4.4% -5.6% 65% 48% +2.9%
≤30d 226 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 42% +3.2%
≤90d 226 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 42% +3.2%
all 226 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 42% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover129.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 42% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here +6.0% 32% -6.7%
15% -4.2% 25% -15.7%
20% -13.6% 23% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,331.48 · official $8,446.41 · 3500 history records