Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x0712…c38a world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-5%) realized −$15 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$108
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +4.8% -5.2% 25% 25% -13.4%
≤90d 11 -2.5% -11.8% 36% 27% -11.2%
all 11 -2.5% -11.8% 36% 27% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 27% -11.2%
10% -20.3% 27% -19.7%
15% -28.0% 18% -27.4%
20% -35.0% 9% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$23 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage72d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 45¢ 100¢ $90 $199 +$109 (+121%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $75 $79 +$4 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 60¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 64¢ 6¢ $210 $21 −$189 (-90%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $569 −$46 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $33 −$8 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $75 +$68 +91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $125 −$48 -39%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 23 $39 −$4 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 23 $265 +$9 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 20 $59 +$13 +23%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? May 20 $71 −$41 -58%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31? May 20 $129 +$47 +37%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $39 −$16 -40%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 18 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 61¢ $67 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $32 1h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $75 10d
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $210 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $90 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $523 14d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $143 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $77 15d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 15d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $470 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $75 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $125 19d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 19d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $99 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 36d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $274 36d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $72 39d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 40d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $265 40d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $29 40d
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $176 40d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $23 42d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 45d
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY No 60¢ $129 45d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 58¢ $59 52d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 52d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 59d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $8 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.88 · official $413.88 (match) · 34 history records